Poland goes Europe

The GUS, Poland’s central statistical office, announced at the beginning of March that the Polish economy had grown by two per cent in 2012 by comparison with the previous year, though growth was tending towards nil at the end of the year. In the fourth quarter of 2012 growth came to only 1.1 per cent compared with the same period the year before, and by just 0.2 per cent on the preceding quarter. The growth achieved between October and December came practically from exports alone. Capital expenditure in the fourth quarter of 2012 was down by 0.3 per cent on the fourth quarter of 2011. Private consumption recorded a decline of 0.7 per cent. The difficulties encountered by the Polish economy in recent years have also left their mark on the construction industry. Experts in the field of house building estimate that there is a need for at least 1.5 mio more housing units at present. However, the number of building permits fell in the first seven months of 2012 by 1.8 per cent to 102 700 home units, according to the GUS. Developers are finding it increasingly difficult to sell their properties. Housing loans are no longer so easy to obtain, and demand is con­centrated on relatively small homes. House prices are falling (by 3.3 per cent from September 2011 to August 2012; -1.4 per cent forecast for September 2012 to August 2013). The most important customer group for windows and doors is the house-building industry. At a rough estimate some 60 per cent of the windows produced in Poland are destined for this sector. Renovation work or the replacement of window and door elements are being planned by 6.5 per cent of Polish households; 4.2 per cent expressed an interest in replacing their windows. Of these, 82 per cent (some 500 000 homes) intend to carry out this project in 2012 and 2013. The calculations allow for an average of five windows per home, resulting in a demand for 2.5 mio windows over this period. What is more, in 60.3 per cent of these cases there is also the expectation that interior doors will be replaced in 2012 and 2013. This means a buying requirement of approx. 2.1 mio units for around 600 000 households. In the case of outside doors, the demand for 0.6 mio units is revealed when the same method of calculation is applied. The export business is one of the more significant factors that have a considerable influence on the future of the Polish sector for window and door elements. On looking back over the time frame it can be observed that, apart…